President Obama delivers his first State of the
Union address on January 27, 2010. President Obama's State of the Union speech
Tuesday will be in part driven by events - chief
among them the "shellacking" he took in the
midterm elections and the assassination attempt
on Democratic Rep. Gabrielle Giffords of Arizona.
But it will also, inevitably, be driven by politics -
and, along with the tax cut compromise worked
out in December, set the groundwork for Mr.
Obama's argument to voters that he deserves to
be reelected in 2012.
When Republicans took control of the House in
November, it was an obvious setback for
Democrats. But it also came with an opportunity.
After two years of casting stones from the
sidelines, Republicans had to take some
ownership of the business of governing. The
result was the unexpectedly productive lame
duck session punctuated by the tax cut
compromise, which provided Americans with a
glimpse - however brief - of a Washington that
seemed to work.
And much of the credit for that went to Mr.
Obama, who had promised to change the tone in
Washington but had until that moment, in even
the eyes of many of his supporters, failed to
deliver. Polls in the wake of the compromise
suggest that his standing has increased since the
midterms, particularly among independents,
who may be giving the president a second look
as someone who ultimately can function as, in
the words of his predecessor, "a uniter, not a
divider."
Indeed, the tax cut deal allowed Mr. Obama to
present himself as someone capable of
overseeing a more effective Washington. Then
came the tragic attack on Giffords and others in
Tucson, which gave him the opportunity
(however unwanted, in light of the
circumstances) to present himself as capable of
changing the tone as well.
The tax cut deal and Mr. Obama's reaction to the
Tucson tragedy - which included a moving
speech memorializing the victims and calling on
Americans to aspire to their better selves -
allowed the president to reclaim his original
argument: That he can rise above the ugliness of
Washington rhetoric and cut through the
divisiveness that rose to a fever pitch under
President George W. Bush.
The speech Mr. Obama delivers Tuesday will be
designed in large part to drive that notion home.
The president has little reason to call for the sort
of aggressive policy moves of his first two years
- political reality means that anything as ambitions
as health care reform is off the table. Instead, he
will stress how lawmakers can come together
both legislatively and personally - a notion that
will be reinforced by the decision of many
lawmakers to break with tradition and watch the
speech alongside a member of the opposition
party.
The Barack Obama of the 2011 State of the Union
address will strive to project moderation. He will
likely point to his recent efforts to reach out to the
business community to make the case that
acrimony can't be overcome -- and drive that
point home by stressing his desire to improve
the playing field for American business to be
competitive around the globe.
That doesn't mean there won't be fault lines, of
course. Republicans are aggressively pushing the
notion that Mr. Obama has been a reckless
spender in his first two years, an argument they
will come back to over and over in the run-up to
election day 2012. They plan a vote for
Tuesday on returning discretionary, non-
security spending to 2008 levels to drive the
point home.
And while Mr. Obama is stressing that he wants
to lower deficits responsibly, he will call in the
speech for continued spending on infrastructure,
education and research and development to help
the economy continue to recover - and caution
that deep spending cuts could hamper that
recovery. In a preview speech released over the
weekend, the president cast such costs not as
spending but investment, prompting derision
from Republicans.
Yet don't expect that conflict to yield anything like
the " You Lie" moment provided by Rep. Joe
Wilson in 2009. The speech, coming just weeks
after a national tragedy, will be about unity: The
president will favor soaring rhetoric and
generalities over potentially divisive policy
proposals, and members of both parties in the
audience will look for opportunities to showcase
their willingness to disagree without being
disagreeable.
Republicans realize that the credit for that
environment is likely to go disproportionately to
Mr. Obama, just as it did following the tax cut
deal. But there isn't much they can do about it.
For the president, the speech offers the
opportunity to set the tone for a reelection
campaign highly dependent on winning back the
independent voters who respond well to efforts
to rise above the typical Washington noise. And
that's not an opportunity he's going to pass up.
Source: Http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20029390-503544.html
