BEIJING (Reuters) - U.S. Defense Secretary Robert
Gates' call for China's military to communicate
better with its civilian leaders underscores the
policy disconnect in Beijing and raises questions
over who really wields control in China.
Beijing confirmed this week it had held its first
test flight of the J-20 stealth fighter jet, surprising
many in the international community who had
underestimated China's ability to develop
technology to one day rival the United States.
Was the timing of the launch meant to coincide
with Gates' visit and, if so, why; and was
Chinese President Hu Jintao genuinely unaware
of the flight, signaling a worrying lack of
communication between China's military and its
civilian leaders?
Hu told Gates the launch was not designed to
coincide with the U.S. Defense Secretary's visit.
Not everyone is convinced.
Analysts say the timing of the flight not only
underscores the lack of trust between the two
militaries, but a lack of communication between
China's military and civilian government.
"No matter how you look at it, the possible
explanations for the apparent civil-military
disconnect revealed in the meeting between
President Hu Jintao and Secretary of Defense
Robert Gates are all decidedly worrisome," said
Drew Thompson, a China expert at the Nixon
Center in Washington.
"Whether Hu Jintao is being snubbed by his own
military, or whether he was aware and endorsed
the flight test at the time of the Gates visit to
signal China's intent to challenge the U.S., both
possibilities are equally disturbing for the bilateral
relationship."
Gates himself told reporters in Tokyo on Friday
he believed the test flight "can be explained by
bureaucratic mistakes," adding he had no doubt
Hu was in overall control.
"There have been more than a few occasions
where the United States military was conducting
an exercise or carrying out an activity and not
sensitive to the fact that a foreign visitor might
be in Washington at the same time," he said.
"But on the whole I think that this is something
that is a worry and one of the reasons I have
pressed so hard for there to be a deeper, senior
level civilian, military dialogue with both civilian
and military representatives from both countries
is that we have no forum right now on security
issues, or military issues, that includes senior
civilians and military."
The test flight will draw unwanted extra attention
on China's military intentions and muddy the
waters ahead of Hu's visit to Washington next
week.
Military ties are among the most brittle links
between the United States and China, grappling
with trade strains, security distrust and human
rights disputes that have unsettled relations
between the world's biggest economy and the
emerging number two.
Chinese government officials and state-run
media have repeatedly said the stealth jet should
not be seen as a threat. China has repeatedly said
its military modernization program is for
defensive purposes.
"We shouldn't listen to the words but look at the
deeds and its achievements," said Jean Pierre
Cabestan, a professor who specializes on
Chinese politics at Hong Kong's Baptist
University. "One thing the Chinese know pretty
well is that there is no soft power without hard
power."
"But China seems to be on the defensive -- it
feels the need to assure more than before that its
intentions are peaceful."
DOES THE PARTY COMMAND THE GUN?
Even so, this incident has raised questions about
whether rival forces among Chinese PLA officials
and civilian leaders are making diplomacy in
Beijing potentially troublesome.
"There's a growing divide between the civilian
policymakers and the foreign policy implications
of the PLA's military modernization process,"
Thompson said. "The PLA has been carrying out
activities that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs
doesn't endorse or support. There are internal
differences. But I wouldn't call it a split or divide."
The real problem may be miscommunication
among the different bureaucratic bodies, rather
than a deep rift.
An example was China's anti-satellite test in
2007, when the Foreign Ministry looked ill-
prepared for the event, which created
international worry over Beijing's ambitions in
space.
"Where we do see a divide in the government is
not so much between the military and upper
leadership; it's more between the Ministry of
Foreign Affairs and other parts of the
government," said Matt Durnin, a researcher
with the World Security Institute.
"They don't seem to be regularly or predictably
consulted on how to communicate these things
to the outside world."
The test flight has also raised questions about an
assertive Chinese military, whose traditional
mandate has been to preserve the Communist
Party's monopoly on power, and its influence on
foreign policy.
Last year, some PLA officers spoke out about
foreign policy on television, causing concern
among its neighbors that China's military could
push its own agenda ahead of a leadership
transition in the next two years.
But analysts say it is unlikely that Beijing will let
hawkish military officials dictate China's foreign
policy.
For all the military's hardline rhetoric on territorial
disputes in the East and South China Seas and
the U.S.' military exercises on the Korean
Peninsula last year, most of it has been all bark --
with no bite.
"What we've seen is that despite a lot of
frustration and frankly a lot of anger...in terms of
strategic follow-up action, there's been very,
very few in terms of China," said Ryan Clarke,
who specializes in Chinese defense issues at the
National University of Singapore's East Asian
Institute.
"To me that's an indicator that the CCP and
civilian leadership are still in control and they are
still more rational and level-headed than their
military counterparts."
China's nine-man Politburo Standing Committee,
the nation's top political body, is staffed with
technocrats and has no military representative,
suggesting too that the rising influence of the
PLA in China's diplomacy could be overplayed.
FOREIGN POLICY HEADACHE
The stealth test flight came against a backdrop of
a massive Chinese military modernization
program. China's plans to develop aircraft
carriers, anti-satellite missiles and other
advanced systems, and its lack of transparency
about its program have worried neighboring
countries and Washington.
Analysts say the test flight could prompt China's
neighbors, including South Korea and Japan, to
look even more to the U.S. for protection.
Some southeast Asian nations have been
accumulating weapons to counter the rise of an
assertive China, which has asserted sovereignty
over islands in the South China Sea that are also
claimed fully or partly by countries such as
Vietnam and Taiwan.
That has resulted in Washington reasserting itself
in the region -- actions that have riled Beijing.
The test flight could further complicate life for
China's foreign policy makers, who will have to
work extra hard to prove that the nation's a
responsible stakeholder in the global community
-- a job made increasingly difficult given the
rising political backlash in the West.
Source: Http://us.mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE70D19P20110114?ca=rdt
0 comments:
Post a Comment